Lines between traditional architectural lighting and signage will continue to blur and systems will continue to be more integrated.

传统建筑照明和标牌之间的界限将越来越模糊，整个系统会继续集成、整合，逐渐一体化。

I believe that to understand the future, you must look at the past. This is my 18th year developing products specifically for the electric sign industry, and there has been a tremendous change.

“以史为镜，可以知兴替”，人们想要了解未来的趋势，就必须回顾过去。布莱恩·文森特专门为电子标识行业开发产品已有18年，在这段时间里，整个行业发生了翻天覆地的变化。

When I started developing LEDs for commercial signage in 2003, I made a statement to a newspaper reporter that neon was a dinosaur. I was subsequently lectured by a few sign makers and tube benders that I was way out over my skis and that this LED thing was a flash in the pan.

布莱恩·文森特最早于2003年开始研发用于商业标牌的LED，他当时对一家报纸的记者说：霓虹灯如同标识世界中的恐龙——已经是过去式了。但是这样的发言显然会引起一些标识制作者和弯管机操作者的愤怒，于是他在这些人当中饱受指责，专业能力也受到质疑，而他所看好的LED也被嘲讽为只是昙花一现的技术。

Today, end-users are looking to light everything up on or around their building.

如今，终端客户希望建筑物上以及建筑物周围的所有东西都能被灯光照亮。

Early LED systems were bare PCBs with wire in between. There were various voltages and power sources (everyone who has been around a while remembers the GE dip switches that set the voltage depending upon the color). As with most disruptive technologies, early systems were overpriced and underperforming; however, unlike their neon predecessor, they could adapt and create new form factors.

早期LED系统是裸露的PCB，中间有导线、各种各样的电压和电源，如果经历过那个时代的人们应该还会记得，GE公司为LED设计的拨码开关能根据颜色设置电压。LED和很多具有颠覆性的技术一样，早期系统的价格对比传统产品来说过高且使用表现不佳；但是与霓虹灯的前身比起来，LED很快就能适应市场需要并且创造出新的外观造型。

Early years

回顾过去

If you look back at the early years of LEDs in signs, the mission was simple: replace neon. Between 2000 and 2005, product development was focused on replacing the incumbent technology with modules in channel letters and rigid tubes in border applications. Between 2005 and 2010, flexible light tapes came onto the market to address needs in indoor signage, and flexible neon was developed as an alternative to exposed neon script. This second period really was around reducing costs, and around 2008, LEDs surpassed neon as the new lighting medium for the sign industry.

如果回顾一下LED早期的发展，需要注意只有一点：取代霓虹灯。在2000年至2005年之间，LED产品开发的重点是用替换发光字中的模组以及刚性管。2005年至2010年之间，柔性灯带被投放入市场，以满足室内标牌的需求；新开发柔性霓虹灯，弥补了早先暴露在外的霓虹灯系统。在LED发展的第二阶段，大约在2008年左右，LED的市场份额就超过了霓虹灯，成为标识行业新的照明用具。

With LED manufacturers now in the pole position, they set their sights squarely on T-12 fluorescents, and again, everyone was skeptical. Just like during the heyday of LEDs in channel letters, there were a lot of systems out there for sign cabinets that varied from lattice to rail and module systems. What changed the cabinet market, particularly for sign retrofits, was when Principal LED came out with Stik that went straight into a socket. This product was preassembled in the USA, which allowed for a range of products “just in time” at a cost point that tipped the system. By the end of 2015, LEDs surpassed T-12 fluorescent lamps as the preferred technology of sign makers.

随着LED制造商正处于行业领先的地位，霓虹灯制造商将目光投向T-12荧光灯，再一次的，所有人都对此表示怀疑。就像在LED在发光字时代进入鼎盛时期一样，此时出现很多用于标牌柜的系统，这些标牌柜的照明方式有点阵、导轨和模组等不同系统。但是当Principal LED与Stik组成系统，一起接入插座的技术出现时，标牌柜市场（尤其是复古标识）被彻底改变。

该产品在美国进行预组装，从而可以在颠覆系统的低成本条件下快速提供一系列产品。到2015年底，LED再次超过T-12荧光灯，成为标识制造商的首选技术。

In 2015, however, technology development started to change, and between 2015 and today, direct material of LEDs and power sources began to be a smaller and smaller piece of the overall cost. It was now about system costs, and two major trends started in the industry.

逐渐的，技术的发展开始产生变化。从2015年至今，LED和电源的主要原材料在产品总成比中的占比越来越小。成本问题主要集中在系统成本上，于是整个行业为解决同一个问题出现了两个主要趋势。

The first was the development of 24V systems to reduce installation times and cost in large signs; the second was the use of kitting and preassembled systems for sign makers to reduce labor and time. Layered on top of this was a trend toward lower profile signs and the blurring of signage and architectural lighting, particularly in outdoor applications on and around building and gas canopies.

第一个是开发24V系统，该方向可以减少安装时间和大笔费用；第二个是为标牌制作者提供套件和预组装系统，可以减少人工和制作时间。

除了这两种主要趋势外，还有一个不可忽视的研究方向，该方向更为垂直，将打破标识和建筑照明之间的模糊界限，并以此为趋势发展。最为代表性的就是室外标识、建筑物周边以及加油站点等场景中的应用。

A timeline of LED trends in electrical signs. Be on the lookout for new technologies that move the cheese by creating new form factors or new manufacturing technologies and processes.

电子标识中LED发展趋势的时间表。其中能体现各个产品通过创建新的外型尺寸或新的制造技术和工艺来寻求分市场蛋糕的各项新技术。

4 major trends

四大趋势

Now that we have looked back, it is time to look forward. I want to highlight four major trends that we’ll experience over the next five years. These trends are a natural extension of application expansion and sophistication of offerings.

历史已经回顾完成，接下来让我们的目光重新看向前方。布莱恩·文森特着重强调了四个主要趋势，电子标识行业可能会在未来五年中经历它们。当然，这四个趋势并非空想得来，而是该领域应用方式的扩展和产品复杂性的自然延伸。

Growth in the domestic supply chain. With the current tariff situation and continued geopolitical risk with China, I believe more LED, and electrical manufacturers will onshore a portion of their production to North America. Domestic products mean that the just-in-time benefits that U.S. assembly created in the retrofit and kitting market can be applied at the module level. This will result in more readily available product options in stock for the sign maker, such as a full range of colors and color temperatures, spacing options, and lens choices.

区域内供应链的增长。鉴于当前美国的关税形势，以及其与中国持续的地缘政治风险，不可避免的情况是更多LED和电气制造商会将其部分产品输出向北美市场。本土制造意味着美国标识行业在改装和翻新产品上的及时性可以深入至模组层级。这个改变将为标牌制造商提供更容易获得的库存产品种类选择，例如各种颜色和色温，灯珠间距以及灯泡种类。

Blurring of the lines between signs and lighting. As LEDs have become commoditized and the costs are a small part of the overall sign system, end users are looking to light everything up on or around their building. Sign makers are the trusted advisor for those customers. They have a great opportunity to move beyond signs into a range of interesting architectural products, including downlighting, linear lighting, and RGB and color-changing systems. With the cost-effectiveness of addressable RGB modules and IP-rated strips, sign makers can now design and create a range of unique lighting effects. Bitro Group offers full-color animation with its LightSymphony Signature system. I anticipate this area of the market will continue to grow.

标识和照明之间的界限趋向模糊。随着LED的商品化，以及其成本在标牌系统中只占很小一部分，终端用户希望凭借它们的力量将建筑物本身及其周围的所有东西都照亮。而每个标牌制作者无疑都是这些客户值得信赖的顾问，以他们丰富的经验有很大可能制造出一系列超越标牌的范畴，既有趣且使用的建筑产品，包括筒灯、线性照明以及RGB变色系统。凭借可寻址RGB模组和IP等级灯条的成本效益，标牌制作商现在可以设计并创建一系列独特的照明效果，比如Bitro集团的LightSymphony Signature系统可以提供全彩色动画效果。这一市场领域或将持续增长。

LEDs have gone from replacing existing technology in neon and T-12 fluorescents to integration as a system, and now, the expansion of applications that offer a range of more sophisticated ways that they can be used.

LED已从取代霓虹灯和T-12荧光灯的现有技术转变为系统集成，如今，应用场景的扩展提供了多种更复杂的使用方式。

Integrated systems and IoT. One growing trend that will continue is the integration of systems and tools for sign makers. Most LED suppliers have a range of tools to help sign makers sell to end-users. These include ROI and energy savings calculators, as well as estimating software. At Principal LED, we have a rebate group that helps sign makers take advantage of energy rebates. Sign/LED Wizard, provider of LED layout software, now offers its integrated desktop product free of charge to sign makers. “…our production version allows sign makers to estimate costs of other materials and can be easily uploaded into a router to cut faces, and score and cut the back of the sign. We have plans to incorporate additional tools to assist in project management and sales,” says Jeff Fassett, VP of business development.

集成系统和物联网。另一个将呈现持续增长的趋势是，各种系统与工具将被整合于一处提供给标识制作者。大多数LED供应商都会提供一系列工具来帮助标牌制造商，并最后销售给终端用户。其中包括：投资回报率和节能计算工具以及估算软件。拿Principal LED来说，其专门设有一个折扣小组，可以帮助标牌制造商利用能源进行折扣。LED布局软件的供应商Sign/LED Wizard现在免费向标牌制造商提供其集成的软件产品，该公司业务开发副总裁杰夫·法赛特这样说：“我们的软件版本使标牌制造商可以估算其他材料的成本，并轻松上传到雕刻机上切割标识的表面、背面以及纹路。与此同时，我们也在计划将有关项目管理和销售的工具进行合并，以更好协助制作者的工作。”

Another part of integration in the future will be incorporating IoT into sign applications. The idea of smart signs that monitor energy consumption and can report outages will continue to grow. Colite has developed its own cloud system called Signalytix for monitoring and tracking of signage programs.

除系统和工具外，另一在未来会产生集成化趋势的是物联网与标识应用方式。随时随地监视能耗并可以报告故障的智能标牌早已在人们的构想之中，随着技术的进步，该想法也在向成为现实不断发展。Colite开发了自己名为Signalytix的云端系统，用于监视和跟踪标牌项目。

Printed LED technology. Interestingly, I ended up learning about and helping develop printed LEDs when I worked at Dow Chemical 20 years ago. The technology was very new and has been slow to develop. However, there is no question that end-users and sign makers want lower profile signage, and LED modules are inherently point sources. The name of the game is light distribution, and printed LEDs could be a disruptor to discreet LED modules in the sign industry over the next five years. Several companies have recently made real improvements in this space, and though not a current trend, it is something to look out for.

印刷LED技术。让布莱恩·文森特感到有趣的是，印刷LED是他20年前就职于陶氏化学时经过钻研并帮助开发的一项技术。该项目无论在当时还是现在，都是非常新的技术，因为发展十分缓慢。但是毫无疑问，终端客户和标牌制造商都希望采用更薄的标牌，而LED模组本身就是点光源。因此该游戏真正的名字应该叫：配光之战。在未来五年中，印刷LED可能会破坏标识行业中一直以来非常谨慎的模组化LED。有几家公司在最近于该领域都取得了真正有意义的进步，尽管该技术不是当前主流的趋势，但仍然值得一提。

Trendsetting

引向未来

When you look back at the history of LEDs in the sign industry (or any technology for that matter), you see a classic cycle. LEDs have gone from replacing existing technology in neon and T-12 fluorescents to integration as a system, and now expansion of applications that offer a range of more sophisticated ways that they can be used. Lines between traditional architectural lighting and signage will continue to blur, and systems will continue to be more integrated and streamlined. Finally, be on the lookout for new technologies that move the cheese by creating new form factors or new manufacturing technologies and processes.

通过回顾标识行业中LED的历史（以及与此相关的所有技术），一个经典的循环周期会出现在我们眼前。LED已经从取代霓虹灯和T-12荧光灯的普遍性技术，进而发展为系统集成，现在更扩展了应用范围，提供了多种更复杂的使用方式。传统建筑照明和标牌之间的界限将继续模糊，并且系统将继续更加集成化与简化。最后，希望各位同行都能通过创建新的外形尺寸或新的制造技术和工艺来重新分割市场奶酪。